Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.440664 3.323943 4.574536 6.537387 9.664429e+00 1.468938e+01 2.392293e+01
2025-03-23 1.600665 2.503049 4.042045 7.074875 1.352447e+01 2.847726e+01 7.394521e+01
2025-03-30 1.117724 1.947357 3.593822 7.560048 1.874445e+01 5.786452e+01 2.983481e+02
2025-04-06 0.759895 1.431632 2.924800 7.148579 2.241166e+01 1.035410e+02 1.409733e+03
2025-04-13 0.527317 1.054553 2.335393 6.473301 2.515959e+01 1.789393e+02 1.155608e+04
2025-04-20 0.410236 0.874564 2.118167 6.803367 3.485079e+01 4.854724e+02 3.514435e+07
2025-04-27 0.339710 0.772378 2.054320 7.771707 5.611686e+01 2.389619e+03 NaN
2025-05-04 0.288206 0.695772 2.025920 9.070528 9.796560e+01 3.422252e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 0.239868 0.606552 1.898572 9.802368 1.562722e+02 8.882915e+06 NaN
2025-05-18 0.193361 0.503496 1.651554 9.389890 2.009834e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.155195 0.412179 1.396047 8.495221 2.278625e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.134616 0.369729 1.323599 9.094465 3.816945e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.116099 0.329152 1.243072 9.653111 6.832612e+02 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.102575 0.300820 1.204233 10.751512 1.554312e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.090769 0.274237 1.156822 11.777168 3.935681e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.077608 0.237940 1.030349 11.227073 6.340197e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.065973 0.203977 0.896753 10.169956 8.132520e+03 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.059311 0.187496 0.858237 10.856703 2.764921e+04 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.054977 0.178895 0.863876 12.712242 4.220527e+05 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 0.051420 0.172285 0.879183 15.247630 2.274419e+12 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 0.047195 0.161357 0.856025 16.755635 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-10 0.042110 0.145078 0.781197 16.036610 NaN NaN NaN
2025-08-17 0.037201 0.128363 0.693267 14.369877 NaN NaN NaN